大连地区ECMWF细网格风向与实况的对比检验

摘要：选取2016年1月-2018年12月ECMWF细网格10 m风资料，与大连地区8个国家气象观测站地面5类实况风向资料进行对比分析。结果表明：5类实况风向平均误差（ME）相差不大，平均绝对误差（MAE）随着预报时限延长均呈增大趋势，正点最大风MAE最小且各时限r均最大，综合来看EC 10 m风向预报与正点最大风最为接近。统计分析EC 10 m风与大连地区正点最大风向的ME和MAE，表明EC风向预报的ME均在0.1°~6°间，预报略偏向实况风的来向左侧，各时限MAE则均在36°以上。风向误差在不同风向、风级和站点中均差异明显，东风误差最大，当实况风力小于4级时，各时限ME均为正差，风级越小正差越大，4级及以上均为负差，风级越大越向负值偏离，风级越大MAE越小。ME在不同风级和风向上均存在明显的日变化。夜间误差整体大于白天，17-20时是全天误差最小的时段。对比08时和20时两个起报时次的风向ME、MAE与RMSE，总体来看08时各时限的预报风向略好于20时。

关键词：风向；最大风；日变化

Abstract：The five categories of wind direction data of eight national meteorological observation stations in Dalian area is compared with the 10-m fine-grid wind data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF or EC) from January 2016 to December 2018. The results show that the mean error (ME) of the five categories of actual wind directions is not much different, while the mean absolute error (MAE) tends to increase with the extension of the forecast time. For the punctual maximum wind of all the analysis and forecast time, MAE is the smallest and the r is the largest. Therefore, the EC 10-m wind direction forecast is the closest to the punctual maximum wind. Through statistical analysis of the ME and MAE between the EC 10-m wind and the actual punctual maximum wind direction in Dalian, it can be concluded that the ME of EC wind direction forecast is between 0.1° and 6° with a slightly bias to the left of the actual wind, and the MAE for all the analysis and forecast time is above 36°. The wind direction error varies significantly with wind directions, wind scales and stations, and the east wind shows the largest error. The ME is positive at all times when the actual scale of wind force is less than 4, and the smaller the wind scale is, the greater the positive ME will be. The ME is negative at all times when the actual scale of wind force is equal to or above 4, and the greater the wind scale is, the more negative it deviates and the smaller the MAE will be. The ME shows significant diurnal variations in different wind scales and directions. The ME at night is larger than that during the day with the smallest error between 17:00-20:00. Comparing the wind direction ME, MAE and Root Mean Square Error for the forecasts with the starting time of 08:00 and 20:00, it is found that the forecast wind direction at 08:00 is better than that at 20:00 in general.

Key words：wind direction; punctual maximum wind; diurnal variations

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